Forecast your travel plans with COVID-19 predictive modeling tools

Like checking the weather before making traveling plans, members of the Mayo Clinic Predictive Modeling Task Force are hoping people turn to the U.S. COVID-19 map to help make decisions this holiday season.

Scientists from multiple disciplines work together to track cases of COVID-19, helping the task force put together a model that incorporates real time data to predict COVID-19 cases.

“This model was initially used to predict COVID-19 hospitalizations across our Mayo Clinic sites in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida, but has since been adapted to predict cases of COVID-19 for the state of Minnesota, as well as the rest of the country,” says Dr. Shannon Dunlay, co-lead of the Mayo Clinic COVID-19 Predictive Modeling Task Force.

Using the data, the Mayo Clinic Coronavirus Map tracking tool, which has county-by-county information on COVID-19 cases and trends nationwide, offers predictive modeling that forecasts where hot spots will emerge over the next 14 days.

The map can offer information on trends across the U.S, including vaccination rates, and also offers practical implications, says Dr. Dunlay.

“There are thousands of decisions that people make every month that could potentially be impacted based on their own personal preferences and risk level as far as whether they would do something or not, depending on where COVID-19 cases are at and headed. It gives you the opportunity to really hone in on a specific area or look at the U.S. broadly and see where they have been and where they’re headed.”

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Using the tool to help make personal decisions about travel is a great option says Dr. Dunlay. She also encourages people to be sure they are vaccinated, get their booster if eligible, mask in public, use good hand hygiene and encourage others to do the same.

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