Why the death numbers in Italy are so much higher than elsewhere in the world
Yet China holds the sad record of most of the Corona-Infected people in the world. But Italy is not far from the local high case numbers so far: More than 31,500 Italians have put up Wednesday afternoon with the pulmonary disease – in China, there are well-81.100.
Moreover, Whereas in China, the contagion curve is in the last few days, extremely flattened, is increasing in Italy continue to grow exponentially.
It is striking also: Sets the number of the dead in Italy in relation to the number of the Infected, so there is a much higher mortality rate than in other countries. Why is this so?
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A look at the Numbers
More than 2503 deaths in connection with the Coronavirus have counted the authorities in Italy to date. In Relation to the number of the Infected, for a mortality rate of around 8 percent. This means that About one in twelve infected Corona-Patient in Italy succumbs to the disease.
In China, 3241 people are so far to the consequences of Covid-19 died. This corresponds to a mortality rate of 4 per cent – one in every 25. Infected in China Corona will not survive.
The Situation in Germany is as follows: almost 10.100 Infected 26 people Dead come. Mean: 0.3 per cent of the German, to get Corona, dies. So about one in every 333.
Yet another number for comparison: South Korea recorded almost 8500 infectious and 84 deaths. This means that Around one in every 100. Patient died – a mortality rate of about 1 percent.
Italy tests to Coronavirus?
Where do you get these different Numbers? Why is the mortality rate in Italy is so much higher? Several scientists and journalists have tried to go to this thing on the ground.
For example, the messages page “Quotidiano cited” a study by the Italian Think-Tanks “Fondazione Gimbe”. Their President is Nino Cartabellotta denounced that in Italy is still too little to Corona will be tested. The higher mortality rate among his compatriots was the result of, among other things, on the decision of the National health Council, to test the patient only on the Corona, if they had formed definite symptoms.
This way you see only the tip of the iceberg, said Cartabellotta. “One might suspect that in Italy the submerged part of the iceberg consists of a further 70,000 cases in which there is only mild or no symptoms”. These people were captured due to the lack of Tests in any of the statistics, and would distort the image, so Cartabellotta.
Also, the WHO had requested Italy recently to test more people to the Virus.
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On each Corona-Positive up to ten unknown Infected
To come to a similar conclusion, researchers at the Imperial College London. In a science magazine “Science” published study from the newspaper “Corriere della Sera”, cited, studied, scientists have, what are the effects of mass testing on the spread of the Virus, and what role the dark figure plays.
Your hypothesis: Based on the case numbers in China and the mathematical models one has to assume that 86 percent of the Corona-Infected never show up in statistics. This means that most people do not even know they have the disease, and the other plug, thus, undetected.
Jeffrey Shaman, co-author of the study, said to reporters: “If there is in America to 3,500 Covid confirmed 19 cases, it could be, in reality, a total of 35,000.” Or, in other words: On every Corona-Positive up to ten unknown Infected. The same is true for all other Western countries, which would have started too late with excessive testing.
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In the United States by the people, for the headlines, the tried with suspected Corona in vain made in the last few days to take the test. The country has extremely scarce Test resources in terms of Covid-19.
In South Korea, where the mortality rate is extremely low, alone, according to information from the U.S. transmitter CNN until 8. March 3692 Tests per one Million people. Italy have made in the same period, 826 Tests per one Million people.
Italy is an “old” country in terms of population
Is to explain the higher mortality rate in Italy is actually only with the high number of unreported cases resulting Distortion effect? An analysis by CNN, it is not so easy.
Also the composition of the population play a significant role: According to a UN Report 2015 of 28.6 per cent of Italians aged 60 years or older – only in Japan, this figure was 33 per cent higher. For comparison: In South Korea, only 18.5 percent of the people were at the time of the report, 60 or older – # 53 in the world. Seniors are proven to be at risk are of dying from the consequences of the Coronavirus as the Younger. The Figures from Italy showed: An analysis of deaths in the past week showed that 89 per cent of the Corona of the dead were in Italy 70 or older.
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What a view in the UN Report reveals: the composition of The population in Germany is comparable to that of Italy. Also, more than 28 percent of people older than 60 years. Nino Cartabellotta from Gimbe-Think Tank warned thus: “The recent increase in the cases in Spain, France and Germany shows that the fight is similar there to the one in Italy – with a delay of seven to nine days.” These countries have “the possibility to react in advance, after you have seen the Italian movie.”
Source: “Quotidiano”, “Corriere della Sera”, CNN, Johns Hopkins University, UN Report
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