Between 0.3 and 2.9 per cent, is to determine Why the Corona-mortality rate is so difficult
If epidemiologists do not know how likely it is to die of a disease that helps you to predict how bad a pandemic is. Once a disease is new, this number is subject to large uncertainties. What we know up to now.
More than two months, the novel Coronavirus Sars has jumped-CoV-2 for the first time on humans. Since then, it has expanded massively in China, and is now encountered in more than three dozen other countries around the world.
2800 people infected, have died in this time, as a real-time map of the disease shows numbers. Fully recovered have), however, already more than 32,000 of the more than 82,000 people Infected worldwide (as of: 27.2.. And although these Figures are known, it is still hard to make a concrete statement about the lethality to die so the probability of the pathogen. Because there are a number of uncertainties exist at the beginning of an epidemic.
The higher the lethality, also, Case Fatality Rate, is the more severe the disease. For comparison: The swine flu of 2009, had Infected an estimated case fatality rate of 0.01 per cent, so a deceased to 10,000. The mortality rate of flu is about 0.1 to 0.2 percent. In the case of Sars, experts expect a mortality rate of 11 per cent, in the case of Mers, even more than 30 percent.
Why is it based on the mortality rate of uncertainty?
You could calculate the probability that Infected with Sars-CoV-2 die, simply by determining the proportion of the previously known deaths of the previously known infected persons. However, this procedure is at an early stage after the outbreak of a disease is inaccurate.
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For one, it is not known whether in fact, all of the Sars-CoV-2-infected persons have already been identified. If an infection is mild or without symptoms, many cases go undetected. In the case of the novel Coronavirus, is not unlikely, because an investigation by the Chinese center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) comes to the conclusion that 80 percent of the illnesses are mild. The lethality of the disease would be overestimated in this case.
On the other hand, the Rate could be underestimated also, wouldn’t the deaths be identified because of the disease. The Covid-19, the Sars-CoV-2-induced lung disease, however, unlikely, since the international attention was early high.
Also, many of the Infected are still not back to health. As the disease progresses further, it is as yet unclear. Should rise in the future, the number of Sars-CoV-2 Infected decrease, the number of deaths, however, could correct the mortality rate is also still up.
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How high experts estimate that the mortality rate currently?
In the above-mentioned investigation of the CCDC experts assume that approximately 23 out of 1000 Infected (2.3 percent) die of the consequences of the Corona disease. Only the particularly affected province of Hubei would be considered, resulting in a case fatality rate of 2.9 per cent, outside of which, in China, the lower Rate of 0.4 percent.
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The world health organization reports that currently, approximately 2 percent of the died on the Covid-19-Sick. However, the Organisation has appreciated the inclusion of the above-described uncertainties, the mortality rate also. She comes in a recently published report concluded that about 0.3 to 1 percent of the Patients, i.e., 3 to 10 out of 1000 Infected, die of Covid-19. In a press conference of the WHO on 25.2. was Bruce Aylward, the Chairman of a joint Mission to investigate the Situation in China, in Hubei, the lethality rate was 2 to 4 percent for other regions of 0.7 per cent.
What factors affect the lethality of a pathogen?
About how high is the probability to die of a pathogen, to decide the following factors:
- the state of the health system, in which the pathogen occurs
- the basic immunization of the population
- socio-economic factors
- Mutations in the Virus genome
State of the health system
It comes to an epidemic, the capacity of a health system are crucial. As Covid-19-die patients mostly complications such as pneumonia, respiratory distress, or Sepsis, can be a health system that is well equipped with ventilator machines in intensive care units, patients better and probably more deaths to prevent.
When there is a suspicion on the Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 of the pathogen is usually demonstrated with a molecular biological Test. The doctor takes a sample from the respiratory tract – either a swab or excreted mucus. Specialists to prepare this sample at the lab and with a so-called PCR-Test to the genetic material of the Virus.
It is a certain portion of the virus genome in millions of copies. The copies are marked with a so-called probe color. This colour coding can then be used with complex devices are made visible. Are corresponding color signals are present, is a “positive sample”.
Under ideal conditions, will take such a Test in a specialized laboratory 3-5 hours.
In the Hubei province in China, very many came together quickly Infected. This could explain why the mortality rate is higher than other places in the world.
Basic immunization of the population
If the immune system knows similar pathogens may already be an immune protection. In China, various corona viruses, however, infect the people, including Sars-CoV. So far, however, it is not known that there is a basic vaccination against corona virus.
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